About the study:
  • The analysis of credit risks of SMEs & MidCaps in this study is based on an AI-based algorithm (TRIBBot), which assesses the credit quality of small and medium-sized companies by using proprietary data. The TRIBBot shows a high discriminatory power and historical robustness and is a new and unique tool for the assessment of credit risks of small and medium-sized companies.
  • Our study shows that the credit risks of SMEs & MidCaps correlate negatively with economic development to a high degree and that the weakening economic development in Germany has led to a significant increase in credit risks since mid-2019. We expect the increase of credit risks to continue in 2020.
  • The increase in credit risks primarily affects sectors that already have an above-average credit risk. The automotive suppliers show the largest increase in credit risks. The companies in this industry are not only exposed to growing political and economic risks, but also to major structural changes, which has disproportionately increased their overall credit risk.